Friday, October 23, 2009
What's Changed?
Question number one, asked after the Washington game: Will the defense tackle better than it did against the Huskies?
Answer: Absolutely. There's still a blown assignment in the secondary now and then, and the line looks very blockable at times, but I think the defense has been tackling and hitting better and better as the season has progressed. The linebackers in particular have really been smacking some people around. It's been nice to see. I was filled with doubts about the linebackers before the season, but they've played far beyond my expectations.
Question number 2, asked after--oh, every single game: Will the offensive line play better?
Answer: Define "better." If you mean better than they did in the first three or four games, then yes. Against Georgia and Florida they blocked okay on running plays. If you mean will they actually turn into a good SEC offensive line, then no. They're still a long way away from that.
I hope the second half of the season sees very positive responses to the rest of our unanswered questions.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
A Wild One to Remember
Halftime in Athens...
Friday, October 2, 2009
4-0, but far from perfect...
Friday, September 18, 2009
LSU 2-0
Offensive Line
The topic of a lot of discussion the last two weeks, people want to see improvement here. It doesn't just need improvement, though. It needs drastic improvement if LSU is going to avoid going 3-5 in the SEC again. I was thinking that it might just be an issue of gelling and teamwork, but I rewatched the Vandy game and think it goes beyond that. On one play Lyle Hitt gets shoved two yards into the backfield on a running play. It was a play where he's supposed to be the aggressor, not the passive interceptor. Instead, he got embarrassed by the left DT, who came dang close to tackling Keiland Williams for a loss. Ciron Black was getting beat straight up by someone named--hold on while I check the game thread--Broderick Stewart. On another play Stewart came inside and the tackle looped outside him. Black tried to pass Stewart on to Dworaczyk, who was still in the middle of engaging the moving tackle. Stewart slipped in between them to pressure Jefferson.
It seems like there's both individual and unit performance issues that need to be addressed. I think Vanderbilt has some legitimate SEC talent up front, but if LSU is having trouble moving Vanderbilt out of the way, I don't want to think about what's going to happen with the big boys they have to face.
Offensive Rhythm
The offense looks sloppy, like it's relying more on athleticism and getting guys into space than on execution and fundamentals. I don't want it to be a "grab bag" of plays that seems mish-mash just to keep the defense off balance. I want to see a play run because the players are good at running the play, and because it's part of a cohesive game plan to attack the defense. Is Miles holding Crowton back? I don't think so. I think Jordan Jefferson is holding him back. Jefferson has not impressed me as a passer, and I think that has affected Crowton's playcalling. The griping about throwing the ball downfield is partly a function of the line not being able to protect, and partly Jefferson just not being all that good at it. He overthrew two receivers a long passes against Vanderbilt. One was an easy touchdown, the other an easy interception that was called back.
I'm not sure what to think about Terrance Toliver, other than that he could be really, really good. I think he dropped about three balls against Vanderbilt, though. It's way too early to say that he's reached 2007 Lafell levels of dropsiness, so I'll hold off until another couple of games have gone by.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
LSU/UW Thoughts
Let's go over what I was looking forward to and see how it played out:
1) Russell Shepard. I saw him standing around the huddle during timeouts with his head down, but he never set foot on the field. My #1 thing to look for against Vanderbilt will be...Russell Shepard.
2) A fast defense that can handle a mobile quarterback. Didn't happen. Little pressure from the front four, and Locker threw for a bunch of yards even before the meaningless last drive. The ends pinched down hard on a lot of play action, giving Locker a chance to make plays with his legs on the outside.
3) Execution. Meh. Tackling stunk, and the offensive line was really unimpressive. However, I absolutely loved LSU's last drive of the game. Jefferson was 3 for 3 passing, and the option plays were run very well, with Jefferson making good decisions each time. I think the defense looked like they knew what they were doing, even if they missed too many tackles.
4) Something not referred to as the "Wild Tiger." Wish granted. We didn't even see a package close to it.
5) Pressure from the front four. Nope. Alem was credited with a sack when Locker's knee hit the ground as he was diving forward, and Nevis blew through with a sack when Washington was playing catchup. Other than that, LSU had to blitz to get pressure, which exposed some open spaces the blitz created.
6) LSU fans putting up a good showing at Husky Stadium. Wish granted, and then some. LSU may have had as many as 20,000 people in the stadium. We saw them all over town before and after the game. The Washington crowd seemed a lot louder when I watched the replay on TV than they did in the stadium. Keep in mind that they don't even start school until the 30th. When LSU scored, the crowd got quiet. If the other team had scored in Tiger Stadium, the crowd would come roaring back to pump up the team. The people up there are really nice, but their crowd wasn't much of a challenge.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Game Day vs. Washington
There's all sorts of stories about the mass of LSU fans here, and I can attest that there were many of them on the flight here and at the airport. I've seen a few in the hotel. I don't know what the exact numbers will end up being, but I think LSU is putting up a good showing that's surprising--maybe even shocking--the local folks. I think the players and coaches will be pleased with what the LSU crowd brings to the stadium tonight.
Lee Corso picked Washington to upset LSU, which is fine. UW is a Pac-10 team with a good quarterback, and LSU is traveling across two time zones to play a night game. Stranger things have happened. One of the great lessons fans should learn is not to get ticked off at predictions, and it doesn't matter if it comes from Corso, Holtz, Herbstreit, Cowherd, Mandel, Maisel, or anybody else. Predictions do not matter. Besides, do you really want to beat up on and hate a guy who loves college football and is recovering from a stroke? In lots of areas of TV coverage there are people on camera who aren't there because they're the absolute expert on the subject, but because they're good on TV. The ability to provoke a response from the viewing audience without sounding like a complete crackpot is a valuable commodity.
I don't think I'll be able to write anything until we get back from the game, so take care till then.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
What I'm Looking Foward to at Washington
1) Russell Shepard. The season's success on offense this season rests on the shoulders of Jordan Jefferson, but the true joy (I hope) on that side of the ball is going to come from watching Shepard run the ball. Or catch the ball. Or take a handoff, or throw the ball, or hand it off, or stand on his head and gargle peanut butter. Ciron Black has been raving about him in practice, pretty much saying everybody needs to watch out and say their prayers. I hope to high heaven he's right.
2) A fast defense that can handle a mobile quarterback. Jake Locker is a legit dual threat, and if the linemen and linebackers aren't disciplined, he can do some serious damage with his legs. I think this will be a good test to see how far the front seven has come in terms of recognition and consistent tackling.
3) Execution. It's the first game of the season, so this part may be a little iffy, but the one thing I always, always, always want to see out of my team is that they look like they know what the heck they're doing. Sloppy play drives me up the wall, and can easily inject bad sentiment into your gut even if you win.
4) Something not referred to as the "Wild Tiger." Come on, people. Arkansas called it the Wildcat, then changed it to the Wild Hog, now Nutt runs the Wild Rebel, and tons of other schools are running the Wild [INSERT TEAM MASCOT HERE]. Can't LSU come up with something a little more original that's LSU-related but doesn't follow the exact same format as everybody else? If the collegefanatics rallying cry for the offense is "Unleash the Wantango!", could we call it the "Wild Wantango"?
5) Pressure from the front four. Fans love blitzing, and I'm sure players do too, but if you have to blitz to get pressure on the quarterback, a good team will find a way to exploit open spaces in coverage. I prefer to see my team blitz out of convenience, not out of desperation. Dropping seven into coverage does not hurt my feelings at all.
6) LSU fans putting up a good showing at Husky Stadium. A friend of mine was in Tucson in 2003 when LSU played Arizona, and she said she'd never seen so much purple in all her life. I'm hoping that Tiger fans will leave a similarly impressive mark on Seattle.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Scrimmage, Back Seven, and QBs
Scrimmage
Let's play a "what if" game. The headline after Saturday's scrimmage was LSU head coach Les Miles says offense "won" football's first scrimmage. The first sentence in the article notes that Miles "didn't put much stock in the victory", and neither do I. Scrimmages like that aren't about winning and losing, but about improving individual and team performance.
Let's put that aside for a moment and ask "What if the offense really did win the scrimmage?" Would that make you more or less concerned about the team's chances for success this season? If you asked the fans "Which unit would you rather see come out on top?", I bet a solid majority would go with the defense. The common phrase is "defense wins championships," but I prefer "you take your defense with you wherever you go." Offenses can get rattled by the crowd noise and atmosphere of a road game, but the crowd is usually quieter when the road team is on defense. Defensive performance shouldn't vary to the same degree that offensive performance can home vs. away.
So an offense that is:
a) breaking in a new quarterback with only two starts under his belt
b) looking for a dependable number two wide receiver
c) replacing two solid-to-very good offensive linemen
has the advantage over a defense that:
a) is replacing three defensive linemen
b) using a converted safety at linebacker
c) returns several players from a secondary that got toasted against quality teams last season
Who do you want to win? I'd like to think that John Chavis could organize a talented lineup into a defense that could handle what is essentially a first-year quarterback, so I'll say defense. So to answer the original question, it's bad if the offense really "won" the scrimmage.
Back Seven
On a related note, there's been all sorts of talk about how Chavis wants to play a "base" defense--three linebackers--against three receiver sets instead of going to a nickel package. I have a hunch that in obvious passing situations, that third LB is going to be Harry Coleman, while Riley/Sheppard/Cutrera will see more action on obvious running downs. This could change against spread teams, where the coaches may want a faster unit on the field.
I've been tempted to say something like "If the coaches thought that Harry Coleman was the best safety on the team, then he'd still be playing safety." After thinking about it some more, I think this is actually a way to let Coleman play strong safety under the guise of being called a linebacker.
Let's go back to the BCS title game against Ohio State, the game where most people first started to say good things about him. Craig Steltz goes out with an injury, so Harry Coleman subs in at strong safety. What did Pelini do with him? He kept him near the line of scrimmage and blitzed him. Ohio State was never able to find somebody to challenge him downfield. The corners handled Robiskie and Hartline, and Ali Highsmith took the tight end. Coleman was allowed to play without deep coverage responsibilities.
I know he played LB in high school, but I can't help thinking that his real position this season will be closer to a LB/SS hybrid than a true linebacker, and he'll be responsible for taking tight ends and backs within fifteen yards of scrimmage. When he's on the field, it'll be like a 4-2.5-4.5 defense instead of a 4-3-4 or 4-2-5.
QBs
Jordan Jefferson is the starting quarterback. Jordan Jefferson is the starting quarterback. Jordan Jefferson is the starting quarterback.
I just wanted to get that out of the way so nobody would freak out when I note that all reports from fall practice say that Jarrett Lee is still the best passer on the LSU roster. The order here seems to be Lee, Chris Garrett, Jefferson, Russell Shepard as far as passing ability goes. At the moment, Jefferson is still the best QB to run the full Wantango due to his mobility and magical "hasn't thrown seven interceptions returned for touchdowns" ability.
The hope is that Garrett will redshirt and that Shepard will evolve into a good enough passer that he can line up at QB all the time. But if LSU gets behind by 20 points in the second half, don't throw the remote at the TV or punch holes in the toxic Chinese drywall when you see Jarrett Lee take the field.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Ones to Watch: Part II
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Phil Steele's Thoughts on LSU
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Expectations and "Well, maybe"
So here are some expectations:
--for the offense to look substantially different than 2008. With an established core of offensive skill position seniors in LaFell, Dickson, Scott, and Williams, you could make a case that LSU will continue to run the same offense that averaged over 30 points per game. I just think that Jordan Jefferson and Russell Shepard will prove too tempting for Gary Crowton to stay pat, and he'll call several plays per game that involve Jefferson or Shepard running the ball from the quarterback position. The season started with Andrew Hatch doing some running, and ended with Jefferson doing some running, but mostly in between was Jarrett Lee dropping back or handing off. I think we'll see a lot more zone read, QB draws, and option plays for the duration of the season.
--for Russell Shepard to line up at a minimum of four positions: quarterback, running back, slot receiver, and wideout. He can run it (zone read, draw) or throw it as a quarterback, or get handoffs, pitches, or flare passes as a running back. From the slot he can work the middle against a linebacker or catch bubble screens. Out wide he can run the receiver screen or act as a decoy. I think he'll be all over the place.
--for Patrick Peterson to emerge as one of the top defenders in the SEC at any position. I don't say this just because he was a big-time recruit who became a starter last season (okay, that's part of the reason). I was at the Alabama/LSU game, and I was very, very impressed when I saw him in person. I think he's going to be a rock that the coaches can depend on to shut down his man on a consistent basis. Peterson vs. Julio Jones is going to be a sight to see this year and the next.
--for Jarrett Lee to play in every game. In 2007, Matt Flynn could be 5-5 for 60 yards on a drive, facing 1st and goal at the 4. What happened? In came Ryan Perrilloux to run the option or hand off. This coaching staff loves to change things up on a defense, and I think it'll happen with Lee this season. Some people may want to see him buried as deep on the bench as possible, but I don't think it's going to work out that way. The same player who was nicknamed LaDrop was the #1 receiver last year and is the expected #1 receiver this year. We wanted anyone not named LaFell out there, if not actively catching passes, then at least not dropping them. But the coaches stuck with him, he caught a TD in the BCS title game, and he had a good year last year. Miles and Crowton do not quit on a player who struggles. Note that this does not mean you won't lose your starting position, however. I just hope the fans at Tiger Stadium don't start to boo every time he steps on the field.
--for the LSU/Auburn game to go down to the wire and be decided by less than a touchdown. I don't want it to work out that way, as I want LSU to blow the doors off of everybody. But the last five meetings have been decided by 19 points. I think that this has become a game where records and rankings go out the window and both teams try to knock the crap out of each other all game long.
This last one's a bit of a stretch:
--for Sam Montgomery to be to the defense what Russell Shepard is to the offense: an explosive freshman who can get things done on the perimeter. If you accept that the starters at DE are Rahim Alem and Pep Levingston, then the competition for Montgomery is Chase Clement, Chancey Aghayere, Bennie Logan and Michael Brockers. I can see him rising up the depth chart and being used as a pass rush specialist.
I think the common sentiment is that Craig Loston is the more logical choice here, but with his grade issues and thumb injury, I don't know if he'll be able to crack the lineup of Hatcher, McCray, Jones and Brooks at safety. The track record of players missing time early and playing a significant role is not that great.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Ones to Watch: Part I
Friday, July 24, 2009
Preseason Picks, Team and Individual
Some thoughts:
All-SEC
No LSU defender was picked for the first team defense. Good. After last season, nobody on that side of the ball gets to say, "I'm one of the best." I'm always suspicious of things that are supposed to be used as motivational tactics, but I wouldn't be surprised if no first-teamers was used in this way. Even Rahim Alem, who somehow ended up a first-team SEC selection by the AP last season, is relegated to the third team. Chad Jones made second team, presumably on the basis of athletic ability and being able to play one position this season instead of three or four.
There's a general assumption out there that this season's LSU defense will be much better than last season's. Even though they were the ones out of position and missing tackles, the players are getting the benefit of the doubt from most people due to the co-DC situation. They won't have that excuse this time.
Charles Alexander made second team as well. The first team apparently runs a 3-4, even though only one school in the conference has a reputation for running it. I wonder if Alexander would have made a 4-3 lineup. The second team runs the unbeatable 5-4-4 defense, which I would love to see LSU run. (yeah, yeah, there were some ties)
Preseason Predictions
There are a couple of trains of thought that guide people ranking LSU to start the 2009 season.
1) 2008 was an aberration brought on by a disastrous co-DC experiment and inexperience (and 7 pick sixes) at the QB position. There's too much talent on the roster to go 8-5.
2) Shouldn't there have been too much talent for five losses last season? Now LSU faces a similar schedule while breaking in another new starting QB, three new starting defensive linemen, and questions at wide receiver and on the offensive line.
Of course, I'm in the middle. I like the talent in the secondary, and LSU always has good players up front. The linebackers are experienced, but in my mind they're not experienced at making big plays. I've said this before, but the most notable thing Jacob Cutrera has done in three years is miss two tackles on the same play against Arkansas.
On offense, I'm more concerned about T-Bob Hebert replacing Brett Helms at center than I am with Josh Dworaczyk replacing Herman Johnson at left guard. There's no proven #2 receiver to take the pressure off of LaFell. We all hope He Who Determines the Fate of Others can step in right away and fill that role, but there's no guarantee of that. I think the last wide receiver who made a big impact as a freshman was Michael Clayton in 2001.
Most people are expecting Jordan Jefferson to be better than Jarrett Lee, or at least not to throw as many interceptions. I'm wondering if the expectation is for him to be a good playmaker in the offense, or more of a caretaker who won't give the ball away so often. I don't know.
I do know that what I don't want to hear is anything about his performance in the Peach Bowl (Chick Fil A can call it whatever they want--it's the Peach Bowl) meaning he'll have a great 2009. I believe that one of the biggest mistakes people make is using the bowl game to predict the entire next season. Bowl games are singular entities. Teams have a month or more to prepare. Sometimes they don't care about the game too much at all. The grind and the rhythm of the regular season is gone. This applies to both teams and individuals.
I call it "Matt Flynn Syndrome" when bowl games are used to project a player's future performance. Flynn had a solid Peach Bowl against Miami, going 13-22 for 196 yards and two touchdowns. When he got the starting job in 2007, people expected big things from him. He won the national title, but he was agonizingly inconsistent and threw into double and triple coverage two or three times a game. He was not at the level of the first or second round pick people were hoping for. I think people ignored the total demolition of Miami's offense by the LSU defense and the 272 rushing yards that made Flynn's job so much easier.
I know the numbers don't tell everything, and Jefferson had a beautiful TD pass to LaFell called back on a holding penalty. He managed things very well. But if a team puts up 38 points and the quarterback was 16-25 for 142 yards and a touchdown, that tells me that there are other factors at work. The score was 35-3 at halftime, the defense was playing lights out, Georgia Tech failed on a fake punt, turned it over a couple of times, and got away from their strength early. I want to see what happens in a tight game when Jefferson has to make plays instead of just managing the game or working with a big lead.
I'm getting the feeling that the offense is going to look much, much different this season. A more mobile QB plus Russell Shepard playing all over the place will be a big change from what we saw in 2008. I hope that Gary Crowton can find the right balance among flashy speed, power running, and good execution.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
SEC Media Days: Insight from "The Hat"
"Richard Dickson, our tight end, coming into his final campaign, is poised to have a great year. It's a diverse offense. It's one that's gonna be difficult to defend. We look forward to taking the field with them." --Les Miles
"Ron Cooper, our secondary coach, and Brick Haley, the defensive line, I think there's a great deal of experience and ability in the coaching staff. Again, our players want to play great, and understand theres a work habit and a work ethic there that's established. Again, I think it will fall together nicely.
"The defensive line, we'll graduate some guys. But there will be some men there that have experience. We recruited well behind them. I think there will be some competition as we come to the line of scrimmage. A veteran at linebacker, the entire corporation, from Harry Coleman, Jacob Cutrera, Perry Riley, Kelvin Sheppard, all of which have a great deal of experience, and will give us a line backing core that will make the transition.
"I think we're talented in the secondary. I think Chad Jones, being, you know, put in as our free safety, allowing him to get comfortable at a spot, will benefit his development. I think he's a very talented player. We look forward to that continuing.
"But I think our defense will be better, as well." --Les Miles
"I know there's some issues out there that people want to talk to me about. I had everybody and his brother ask me did I vote for Tebow. I certainly did. He has always had great games against us. Personally, I'm for him. I like who he is. So, yeah, I voted for him.
"I can tell you this. I'm going to call Jefferson and my quarterbacks and hold them to that level of play. I think that anybody that didn't vote for him has that right certainly, but that's their call." --Les Miles
I like the idea of Miles holding whoever his quarterback is to that high of a level. Realistically, we'll probably never see another QB like Tebow who transcends the game the way he does. Jefferson has the potential to be one the best QBs LSU has seen in recent history. Of course, the "potential-to-be" applies to every player. The intelligence, intangibles, athletic ability, and competitiveness are all there for JJ. The question is, will he continue to progress? I know one game (the bowl game) doesn't etch anything in stone, but it's a great confidence booster for anyone. Jefferson should be proud of his performance. His numbers weren't necessarily the greatest. He didn't have as much yardage as I would have liked to have seen him pile up, but he was efficient. He protected the ball, didn't really make any mental errors, and he made plays with his legs at times. His underhand toss to Charles Scott was a good example of just how cognizant this kid is. He knows what to do with the ball.
For the rest of Miles' press conference, go here.
Monday, July 20, 2009
A Bid Farewell
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Looking Ahead: A Breakdown of the Washington Huskies
Okay, so it's roughly 50 days until the opening kickoff, but it's never too early to start speculating. LSU begins their 2009 campaign on the road in one of the most scenic stadiums in the country: Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. The Washington Huskies are not necessarily the most intimidating opponent in college football, but aside from a string of mediocre seasons, they are a BCS affiliate. It's better than playing Eastern Washington or another FCS school in place of UW.