Expectations and "Well, maybe"

I was asked the other day about expectations for the upcoming season. I think there's a difference between expectations and predictions. Predictions are a lot more definite and concrete. Expectations are a bit more nebulous and fluffy. By "expectations", I don't mean the crazy stuff that fans sometimes get in their heads like "if LSU doesn't go undefeated and win every game by at least 21 points, Les Miles should be fired" or "if Player Y doesn't win the Heisman Trophy and rush for 2,000 yards, Gary Crowton should be fired." What I mean is "stuff I sort of think we'll see on the field during LSU games."

So here are some expectations:

--for the offense to look substantially different than 2008. With an established core of offensive skill position seniors in LaFell, Dickson, Scott, and Williams, you could make a case that LSU will continue to run the same offense that averaged over 30 points per game. I just think that Jordan Jefferson and Russell Shepard will prove too tempting for Gary Crowton to stay pat, and he'll call several plays per game that involve Jefferson or Shepard running the ball from the quarterback position. The season started with Andrew Hatch doing some running, and ended with Jefferson doing some running, but mostly in between was Jarrett Lee dropping back or handing off. I think we'll see a lot more zone read, QB draws, and option plays for the duration of the season.

--for Russell Shepard to line up at a minimum of four positions: quarterback, running back, slot receiver, and wideout. He can run it (zone read, draw) or throw it as a quarterback, or get handoffs, pitches, or flare passes as a running back. From the slot he can work the middle against a linebacker or catch bubble screens. Out wide he can run the receiver screen or act as a decoy. I think he'll be all over the place.

--for Patrick Peterson to emerge as one of the top defenders in the SEC at any position. I don't say this just because he was a big-time recruit who became a starter last season (okay, that's part of the reason). I was at the Alabama/LSU game, and I was very, very impressed when I saw him in person. I think he's going to be a rock that the coaches can depend on to shut down his man on a consistent basis. Peterson vs. Julio Jones is going to be a sight to see this year and the next.

--for Jarrett Lee to play in every game. In 2007, Matt Flynn could be 5-5 for 60 yards on a drive, facing 1st and goal at the 4. What happened? In came Ryan Perrilloux to run the option or hand off. This coaching staff loves to change things up on a defense, and I think it'll happen with Lee this season. Some people may want to see him buried as deep on the bench as possible, but I don't think it's going to work out that way. The same player who was nicknamed LaDrop was the #1 receiver last year and is the expected #1 receiver this year. We wanted anyone not named LaFell out there, if not actively catching passes, then at least not dropping them. But the coaches stuck with him, he caught a TD in the BCS title game, and he had a good year last year. Miles and Crowton do not quit on a player who struggles. Note that this does not mean you won't lose your starting position, however. I just hope the fans at Tiger Stadium don't start to boo every time he steps on the field.

--for the LSU/Auburn game to go down to the wire and be decided by less than a touchdown. I don't want it to work out that way, as I want LSU to blow the doors off of everybody. But the last five meetings have been decided by 19 points. I think that this has become a game where records and rankings go out the window and both teams try to knock the crap out of each other all game long.

This last one's a bit of a stretch:

--for Sam Montgomery to be to the defense what Russell Shepard is to the offense: an explosive freshman who can get things done on the perimeter. If you accept that the starters at DE are Rahim Alem and Pep Levingston, then the competition for Montgomery is Chase Clement, Chancey Aghayere, Bennie Logan and Michael Brockers. I can see him rising up the depth chart and being used as a pass rush specialist.

I think the common sentiment is that Craig Loston is the more logical choice here, but with his grade issues and thumb injury, I don't know if he'll be able to crack the lineup of Hatcher, McCray, Jones and Brooks at safety. The track record of players missing time early and playing a significant role is not that great.