Preseason Picks, Team and Individual

We're getting close to the part of the year when football services and sports entities start making their predictions for the 2009 season. The coaches have already released their preseason All-SEC team. Lindy's has LSU in at #6, Andy Staples's post-spring list has LSU at #13, Athlon says #17, and back in April Bruce Feldman put LSU 8th on his list of "Teams Most Likely to Win the BCS Title".

Some thoughts:

All-SEC

No LSU defender was picked for the first team defense. Good. After last season, nobody on that side of the ball gets to say, "I'm one of the best." I'm always suspicious of things that are supposed to be used as motivational tactics, but I wouldn't be surprised if no first-teamers was used in this way. Even Rahim Alem, who somehow ended up a first-team SEC selection by the AP last season, is relegated to the third team. Chad Jones made second team, presumably on the basis of athletic ability and being able to play one position this season instead of three or four.

There's a general assumption out there that this season's LSU defense will be much better than last season's. Even though they were the ones out of position and missing tackles, the players are getting the benefit of the doubt from most people due to the co-DC situation. They won't have that excuse this time.

Charles Alexander made second team as well. The first team apparently runs a 3-4, even though only one school in the conference has a reputation for running it. I wonder if Alexander would have made a 4-3 lineup. The second team runs the unbeatable 5-4-4 defense, which I would love to see LSU run. (yeah, yeah, there were some ties)

Preseason Predictions

There are a couple of trains of thought that guide people ranking LSU to start the 2009 season.

1) 2008 was an aberration brought on by a disastrous co-DC experiment and inexperience (and 7 pick sixes) at the QB position. There's too much talent on the roster to go 8-5.

2) Shouldn't there have been too much talent for five losses last season? Now LSU faces a similar schedule while breaking in another new starting QB, three new starting defensive linemen, and questions at wide receiver and on the offensive line.

Of course, I'm in the middle. I like the talent in the secondary, and LSU always has good players up front. The linebackers are experienced, but in my mind they're not experienced at making big plays. I've said this before, but the most notable thing Jacob Cutrera has done in three years is miss two tackles on the same play against Arkansas.

On offense, I'm more concerned about T-Bob Hebert replacing Brett Helms at center than I am with Josh Dworaczyk replacing Herman Johnson at left guard. There's no proven #2 receiver to take the pressure off of LaFell. We all hope He Who Determines the Fate of Others can step in right away and fill that role, but there's no guarantee of that. I think the last wide receiver who made a big impact as a freshman was Michael Clayton in 2001.

Most people are expecting Jordan Jefferson to be better than Jarrett Lee, or at least not to throw as many interceptions. I'm wondering if the expectation is for him to be a good playmaker in the offense, or more of a caretaker who won't give the ball away so often. I don't know.

I do know that what I don't want to hear is anything about his performance in the Peach Bowl (Chick Fil A can call it whatever they want--it's the Peach Bowl) meaning he'll have a great 2009. I believe that one of the biggest mistakes people make is using the bowl game to predict the entire next season. Bowl games are singular entities. Teams have a month or more to prepare. Sometimes they don't care about the game too much at all. The grind and the rhythm of the regular season is gone. This applies to both teams and individuals.

I call it "Matt Flynn Syndrome" when bowl games are used to project a player's future performance. Flynn had a solid Peach Bowl against Miami, going 13-22 for 196 yards and two touchdowns. When he got the starting job in 2007, people expected big things from him. He won the national title, but he was agonizingly inconsistent and threw into double and triple coverage two or three times a game. He was not at the level of the first or second round pick people were hoping for. I think people ignored the total demolition of Miami's offense by the LSU defense and the 272 rushing yards that made Flynn's job so much easier.

I know the numbers don't tell everything, and Jefferson had a beautiful TD pass to LaFell called back on a holding penalty. He managed things very well. But if a team puts up 38 points and the quarterback was 16-25 for 142 yards and a touchdown, that tells me that there are other factors at work. The score was 35-3 at halftime, the defense was playing lights out, Georgia Tech failed on a fake punt, turned it over a couple of times, and got away from their strength early. I want to see what happens in a tight game when Jefferson has to make plays instead of just managing the game or working with a big lead.

I'm getting the feeling that the offense is going to look much, much different this season. A more mobile QB plus Russell Shepard playing all over the place will be a big change from what we saw in 2008. I hope that Gary Crowton can find the right balance among flashy speed, power running, and good execution.