Scrimmage, Back Seven, and QBs

Scrimmage

Let's play a "what if" game. The headline after Saturday's scrimmage was LSU head coach Les Miles says offense "won" football's first scrimmage. The first sentence in the article notes that Miles "didn't put much stock in the victory", and neither do I. Scrimmages like that aren't about winning and losing, but about improving individual and team performance.

Let's put that aside for a moment and ask "What if the offense really did win the scrimmage?" Would that make you more or less concerned about the team's chances for success this season? If you asked the fans "Which unit would you rather see come out on top?", I bet a solid majority would go with the defense. The common phrase is "defense wins championships," but I prefer "you take your defense with you wherever you go." Offenses can get rattled by the crowd noise and atmosphere of a road game, but the crowd is usually quieter when the road team is on defense. Defensive performance shouldn't vary to the same degree that offensive performance can home vs. away.

So an offense that is:

a) breaking in a new quarterback with only two starts under his belt
b) looking for a dependable number two wide receiver
c) replacing two solid-to-very good offensive linemen

has the advantage over a defense that:

a) is replacing three defensive linemen
b) using a converted safety at linebacker
c) returns several players from a secondary that got toasted against quality teams last season

Who do you want to win? I'd like to think that John Chavis could organize a talented lineup into a defense that could handle what is essentially a first-year quarterback, so I'll say defense. So to answer the original question, it's bad if the offense really "won" the scrimmage.

Back Seven

On a related note, there's been all sorts of talk about how Chavis wants to play a "base" defense--three linebackers--against three receiver sets instead of going to a nickel package. I have a hunch that in obvious passing situations, that third LB is going to be Harry Coleman, while Riley/Sheppard/Cutrera will see more action on obvious running downs. This could change against spread teams, where the coaches may want a faster unit on the field.

I've been tempted to say something like "If the coaches thought that Harry Coleman was the best safety on the team, then he'd still be playing safety." After thinking about it some more, I think this is actually a way to let Coleman play strong safety under the guise of being called a linebacker.

Let's go back to the BCS title game against Ohio State, the game where most people first started to say good things about him. Craig Steltz goes out with an injury, so Harry Coleman subs in at strong safety. What did Pelini do with him? He kept him near the line of scrimmage and blitzed him. Ohio State was never able to find somebody to challenge him downfield. The corners handled Robiskie and Hartline, and Ali Highsmith took the tight end. Coleman was allowed to play without deep coverage responsibilities.

I know he played LB in high school, but I can't help thinking that his real position this season will be closer to a LB/SS hybrid than a true linebacker, and he'll be responsible for taking tight ends and backs within fifteen yards of scrimmage. When he's on the field, it'll be like a 4-2.5-4.5 defense instead of a 4-3-4 or 4-2-5.

QBs

Jordan Jefferson is the starting quarterback. Jordan Jefferson is the starting quarterback. Jordan Jefferson is the starting quarterback.

I just wanted to get that out of the way so nobody would freak out when I note that all reports from fall practice say that Jarrett Lee is still the best passer on the LSU roster. The order here seems to be Lee, Chris Garrett, Jefferson, Russell Shepard as far as passing ability goes. At the moment, Jefferson is still the best QB to run the full Wantango due to his mobility and magical "hasn't thrown seven interceptions returned for touchdowns" ability.

The hope is that Garrett will redshirt and that Shepard will evolve into a good enough passer that he can line up at QB all the time. But if LSU gets behind by 20 points in the second half, don't throw the remote at the TV or punch holes in the toxic Chinese drywall when you see Jarrett Lee take the field.

Ones to Watch: Part II

Brandon LaFell, Ciron Black, and Rahim Alem have all been added to watch lists for their respective positions' individual awards. LaFell is on the Biletnikoff Award watch list, which is awarded to the nation's top receiver; Black is on the Outland Trohpy watch list, which is given to the nation's top interior lineman; and Alem is on the Hendricks Award watch list, which is the award given to the nation's top defensive end.

We'll start with Rahim Alem. Alem led the team in sacks last season with eight and also in tackles for a loss with 11.5. He ranked among the best in those categories in the SEC, and he is expected to have a breakout year as a full-time starter this season. Alem was one of the few that played with a motor that would run nonstop last season, and that's exactly what we need from a defensive end. I'd say he's the best defensive lineman we have coming back. Charles Alexander has been bothered by injuries since he arrived on campus; Al Woods is a big space filler, but not much of a force inside like Dorsey was; and Levingston hasn't had an opportunity to show us what he's got. Of course, when you've got guys like Tyson Jackson, Tremaine Johnson, Kirston Pittman, and Rahim Alem to compete with as a sophomore, the cards are stacked against you.

Ciron Black is rated as the nation's top tackle by several preseason magazines, and he's the only preseason All-American the Tigers have to boast. Alongside Herman Johnson last season, the Tigers' left side of the offensive line was one of the most powerful in the country. Factor in Quinn Johnson at fullback, and you can see why Charles Scott enjoyed running to that side so much. Both Johnsons will be missed this season, but hopefully Dworaczyk and Dugas come along rather swiftly. Miles already has high praise for the offensive line, and word is that Dworaczyk is coming along rather nicely, and Charles Scott says he's never seen a big man run that fast when talking about Richard Dugas. It'll be interesting to see just how well the line performs this season. I know Black has the leadership abilities to pick guys up and boost their morale in tough situations, so Dworaczyk, playing next to one of the nation's elite tackles, couldn't be in a better position. He'll learn the ropes quickly, and I'm confident that Scott or Williams will be able to run behind these two and carve up opposing defenses week after week.

Finally, there's Brandon LaFell. The infamous "LaDrop" from 2007 has turned into one of the nations's top receivers. Who would've thought this scenario would play out. After declaring for the draft, then backing out at the last minute, LaFell enters his senior season with a lot to play for. Another SEC championship would be nice, and of course another national title would be as well, but he's also got some individual hardware that he can earn. Josh Reed was the last LSU wide receiver to win the Biletnikoff Award (2001), and LaFell would love to become the second winner in school history. This would be a tremendous honor for LaFell, as he has overcome immense adversity from both fans and the media. After his "assist" to the Auburn defender in the 2007 game, he didn't see the field much more that game. If he did, he was a non-factor, and nothing was thrown his way. After that game, however, we began to see a new LaFell. The Alabama game, he dropped only one pass, but made at least four catches I can recall that were huge at the time. He looked great down the stretch, including the BCS National Championship Game. Last season, he was the most reliable target, leading the team in receptions (63), yards (929), average (14.7), and touchdown receptions (8). Along with many other Tiger fans, I hope we can find reliable third and fourth targets this season to compliment the passing game and take some the pressure off Richard Dickson and Brandon LaFell. Hopefully Terrance Toliver and Chris Mitchell will finally evolve into sure-handed receivers and emerge as quality deep threats, and Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard may find themselves contributing a great deal as receivers.

Not much longer, Tiger fans. We're almost there.

Phil Steele's Thoughts on LSU

I've been waiting for a while now to get my hands on Phil's 2009 preseason magazine, mostly for entertainment. It's no lie; his magazine is jam-packed with information. He rarely lets an inch of any page remain white or untouched. I'll give him credit for that, but some of his observations are totally out there.

I'll start at the front, and as I go along, I'll continue to jot down any little thing I see pertaining to LSU.

Page 2: Bowl Projection

Phil has LSU slated to play Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl. Now, if this were to take place, this would be an extreme test for our defense. Kendall Hunter, Dez Bryant, and Zac Robinson are a fabulous threesome, and they have the propensity to baffle opposing defenses. I can see this is as a possibility, and if we do wind up in the Cotton Bowl, I would consider it a pretty good season. Ole Miss is picked to play in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl, and Alabama is picked to play in the Cap One Bowl in Orlando. Florida, of course, is slated to meet Texas in the BCS National Championship Game.

Ah, Pages 4-7: Offensive All-Americans and Top Position Players

1st Team AA: OT-Ciron Black

2nd Team AA: WR-Brandon LaFell

Top position players that are draft eligible:

QBs: #58-Jarrett Lee

RBs: #5-Charles Scott, #15-Keiland Williams

WRs: #3-Brandon LaFell, #27-Terrance Tolliver

TEs: #9-Richard Dickson

OGs: #14-Lyle Hitt

OTs: #1-Ciron Black, #14-Joseph Barksdale

Offensively, we've got several guys that could go in the first round of next year's NFL Draft.

Pages 8-10: Defensive All-Americans and Top Position Players

No All-Americans. (Go figure.)

DEs: #43-Rahim Alem

DTs: #13-Al Woods

MLBs: #26-Jacob Cutrera

OLBs: #36-Perry Riley, #63-Kelvin Sheppard, #70-Harry Coleman

CBs: #22-Jai Eugene, #48-Chris Hawkins

FSs: #6-Chad Jones, #14-Danny McCray

Chad Jones obviously has the biggest decision to make. Pro football or pro baseball? In my honest opinion, I think Jones is going to hold out on the NFL Draft and play baseball next spring. He loves baseball, and he is one beastly left-handed pitcher. This means he'll be around for his senior year in football, unless he goes high enough in the amateur draft in baseball next June. Then, we could be saying goodbye to him altogether. If he isn't picked high enough, then he's got a tough decision. It's either the NFL Draft or the MLB Draft. One or the other. I'd imagine scouts on both sides are going to be giving him their prognoses of where he's likely to end up going in both drafts, and also what kind of money he could be looking at. Baseball is where it's at. Longer career, more money, not nearly as much wear and tear on the body, and it's his passion. He's one of those five-tool players. He can hit for power, average, run the bases well, field well, strong arm, and if you throw in the fact that he can pitch extremely well, he's got that all-important "X-factor" that would make him a six-tool player.

Rahim Alem could do himself a world of good with a great season. If he continues to play relentlessly with a motor like he had last season, his draft stock is almost certain to boost. Whoever takes Jacob Cutrera better be ready to work with him a lot. He's got the size, but he needs some coaching. Riley and Sheppard are already being compared to Bradie James and Trev Faulk. Hopefully one of them will emerge as James has in the NFL, and if both wind up going somewhere, hopefully neither of the two will wind up like Faulk--without a job. Coleman as an NFL LB? Nah. I've seen projections that have him listed as one of the top 20 strong safeties, which is more realistic. Coleman will have to beef up some and add a little more speed and strength if he is to go anywhere in the draft. Eugene and Hawkins are probably long shots to be drafted, but who knows? We've seen some interesting draft picks before, and we've also seen some quality guys go undrafted, which is probably even more interesting to some.

Pages 12-15: Top Individual Units

RBs: #7

WRs: #6

OL: #15

DL: #20

LBs: #21

DBs: #6

STs: #25

So, it looks like everything is in fine shape... except the QB position.

I agree with Phil's assessments to a degree. I think one could argue that our stable of RBs could be higher or lower, so #7 is a good position.

WRs, I think it's a bit of a stretch to put us that high. Kansas is extremely low, and the boast probably the best 1-2 punch in the country with Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. Throw in Jonathan Wilson and you've got a very potent passing attack. The Jayhawks are ranked #14. You would've thought that Oklahoma State would've been well up there, and that Dez Bryant would be enough to put them in fine position. They're ranked #24. Phil is a little off his rocker in rating WRs. Notre Dame at #1? He's high on ND in everything, so this doesn't surprise me.

Page 29: Preseason Top 40

LSU is ranked #17.

"Showing you the difference between my Power Poll and my Preseason Rankings, if my #17 LSU took on my #16 Rutgers, I would forecast LSU to win by a couple of TDs! Thanks to the schedules, I think Rutgers will be in the Orange Bowl and LSU, who has to face Georgia, Bama, and Ole Miss on the road and Florida, will not be in a BCS Bowl."

No comment.

Page 30: All-SEC and SEC Forecast

1st Team Offense:

RB-Charles Scott

WR-Brandon LaFell

OT-Ciron Black

2nd Team Offense:

OG-Lyle Hitt

OT-Joseph Barksdale

3rd Team Offense:

TE-Richard Dickson

4th Team Offense:

QB-Jordan Jefferson (Wow. This just goes to show how thin the conference is in QBs this season. Not a knock on Jefferson, but still. Ryan Mallet is in front of JJ on the 3rd team, and of course Tebow is on the first team; Snead on the second.)

No one was on 1st or 2nd Team Defense.

3rd Team Defense:

DE-Rahim Alem

DT-Charles Alexander

LB-Perry Riley

CB-Patrick Peterson

FS-Chad Jones

PR-Trindon Holliday

That's it for the defense.

Pages 48-49: LSU Forecast

QBs: "This unit can only improve upon last year's 52.7% comp and 18 int."

RBs: "This is a deep and talented group and they add 2 more (very highly touted) frosh."

WRs: "With 11 of the top 12 WRs back, plus some exciting frosh added, I look for improved play from the Tiger WRs."

OL: "Despite being slightly less experienced and losing their star (Herman Johnson), they could put up better numbers."

DL: "As usual, this unit is comprised mostly of (very highly touted players) and does return first team SEC DE Rahim Alem who had 8 sacks last year despite only one start."

LBs: "They pulled a LB on many passing plays, something new DC Chavis says they will not do this year, sticking more to 3 LBs... This is an improved unit."

DBs: "Miles did praise CB Chris Hawkins for a spectacular year. True frosh Patrick Peterson started the last 4. LSU dropped to #33 (in pass defense rankings). This year they only lose FS Taylor, Phelon Jones (transfer) and SS Harry Coleman (to LB) and have 11 (very highly touted players) in their top 12, so the Tigers will be at the top again."

STs: "As a team, LSU averaged just 19.5 on KRs and teams kicked away from Holliday (13.3 PR) but they still moved up to #12. They should drop some this year with the loss of K-David and P-Dalfrey."

Coaches: "Les Miles did a fine job at Oklahoma State with his resumé including 2 big upsets over rival OU and 3 bowls. Miles owns a National Title at LSU. In '07 he lost OC Jimbo Fisher and brought in Gary Crowton who was the OC at Oregon ('05-'06) and the BYU HC from '01-'04. While Fisher was lauded by many, under Crowton's guidance, the team averaged a school record 38.6 ppg in '07. Last year, they had to replace DC Bo Pelini. They went to co-DCs in Doug Mallory and Bradley Dale Peveto but both departed. This year, I feel they made an upgrade bringing in 14-year Tennessee DC John Chavis."

Phil's Forecast: "LSU will be a preseason Top 10 team this year, but they face the top 2 teams from the SEC East (Florida and Georgia) and also have to travel to 2 more Top 10 teams in Alabama and Ole Miss giving them the toughest schedule of any SEC school. This year's LSU squad is stronger than the '08 version and is one of the top teams in the country and will top last year's 8-win total."

According to Phil, we have the #21 toughest schedule this season; our pass defense will be the 8th most improved in the country; we have the 2nd best recruiting class for 2009; and we are ranked #6 in the plus/minus power rankings behind Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, and USC. In his power poll, he's got us at #8. Scott and LaFell are the only LSU players he has listed for Heisman consideration.

I'll cap off this lengthy post with his Top 500 incoming freshmen:

QBs: #1-Russell Shepard, #29-Chris Garrett

RBs: #11-Michael Ford, #55-Dominique Allen

WRs: #1-Rueben Randle

OL: #7-Chris Faulk, #20-Stavion Lowe, #54-Carneal Ainsworth

DL: #11-Chris Davenport, #14-Sam Montgomery, #32-Mike Brockers, #55-Josh Downs

LBs: #13-Barkevious Mingo, #29-Kevin Minter, #43-Lamin Barrow

DBs: #1-Craig Loston, #33-Drayton Calhoun

Top 75 incoming JUCOs:

#13-Akiem Hicks

That's all I've got for now. I'll have a breakdown of the schedule in the coming week.

Expectations and "Well, maybe"

I was asked the other day about expectations for the upcoming season. I think there's a difference between expectations and predictions. Predictions are a lot more definite and concrete. Expectations are a bit more nebulous and fluffy. By "expectations", I don't mean the crazy stuff that fans sometimes get in their heads like "if LSU doesn't go undefeated and win every game by at least 21 points, Les Miles should be fired" or "if Player Y doesn't win the Heisman Trophy and rush for 2,000 yards, Gary Crowton should be fired." What I mean is "stuff I sort of think we'll see on the field during LSU games."

So here are some expectations:

--for the offense to look substantially different than 2008. With an established core of offensive skill position seniors in LaFell, Dickson, Scott, and Williams, you could make a case that LSU will continue to run the same offense that averaged over 30 points per game. I just think that Jordan Jefferson and Russell Shepard will prove too tempting for Gary Crowton to stay pat, and he'll call several plays per game that involve Jefferson or Shepard running the ball from the quarterback position. The season started with Andrew Hatch doing some running, and ended with Jefferson doing some running, but mostly in between was Jarrett Lee dropping back or handing off. I think we'll see a lot more zone read, QB draws, and option plays for the duration of the season.

--for Russell Shepard to line up at a minimum of four positions: quarterback, running back, slot receiver, and wideout. He can run it (zone read, draw) or throw it as a quarterback, or get handoffs, pitches, or flare passes as a running back. From the slot he can work the middle against a linebacker or catch bubble screens. Out wide he can run the receiver screen or act as a decoy. I think he'll be all over the place.

--for Patrick Peterson to emerge as one of the top defenders in the SEC at any position. I don't say this just because he was a big-time recruit who became a starter last season (okay, that's part of the reason). I was at the Alabama/LSU game, and I was very, very impressed when I saw him in person. I think he's going to be a rock that the coaches can depend on to shut down his man on a consistent basis. Peterson vs. Julio Jones is going to be a sight to see this year and the next.

--for Jarrett Lee to play in every game. In 2007, Matt Flynn could be 5-5 for 60 yards on a drive, facing 1st and goal at the 4. What happened? In came Ryan Perrilloux to run the option or hand off. This coaching staff loves to change things up on a defense, and I think it'll happen with Lee this season. Some people may want to see him buried as deep on the bench as possible, but I don't think it's going to work out that way. The same player who was nicknamed LaDrop was the #1 receiver last year and is the expected #1 receiver this year. We wanted anyone not named LaFell out there, if not actively catching passes, then at least not dropping them. But the coaches stuck with him, he caught a TD in the BCS title game, and he had a good year last year. Miles and Crowton do not quit on a player who struggles. Note that this does not mean you won't lose your starting position, however. I just hope the fans at Tiger Stadium don't start to boo every time he steps on the field.

--for the LSU/Auburn game to go down to the wire and be decided by less than a touchdown. I don't want it to work out that way, as I want LSU to blow the doors off of everybody. But the last five meetings have been decided by 19 points. I think that this has become a game where records and rankings go out the window and both teams try to knock the crap out of each other all game long.

This last one's a bit of a stretch:

--for Sam Montgomery to be to the defense what Russell Shepard is to the offense: an explosive freshman who can get things done on the perimeter. If you accept that the starters at DE are Rahim Alem and Pep Levingston, then the competition for Montgomery is Chase Clement, Chancey Aghayere, Bennie Logan and Michael Brockers. I can see him rising up the depth chart and being used as a pass rush specialist.

I think the common sentiment is that Craig Loston is the more logical choice here, but with his grade issues and thumb injury, I don't know if he'll be able to crack the lineup of Hatcher, McCray, Jones and Brooks at safety. The track record of players missing time early and playing a significant role is not that great.

Ones to Watch: Part I

With the 2009 football season approaching quickly, it's that time of year again. The time when the pundits begin projecting multiple things, including where teams will rank at year's end; which bowl they might be headed to; who will be on the all-conference and All-American teams; who to watch for in the Heisman race; etc... There are a few Tigers whom have been mentioned as "ones to watch" for some prestigious individual accolades. They are: Charles Scott, Jordan Jefferson, and Richard Dickson.

Charles Scott is on the watch list for the Doak Walker Award, which is given annually to the nation's top running back. On the Davey O'Brien Award watch list is quarterback Jordan Jefferson. Richard Dickson is on the Mackey Award watch list--the award presented to the nation's top tight end. All three of these Tigers will play integral roles in the offense this season, that's for sure, but winning these individual honors will be no easy task.

Charles Scott is coming off his best season since he's been at LSU; a season in which he carved up opposing defenses for a total of 1,174 yards and 18 touchdowns. Kevin Faulk was the last Tiger to rush for 1,000+ yards in consecutive seasons, doing so in 1996, 1997, and 1998. Justin Vincent in 2003, Jacob Hester in 2007, and Charles Scott in 2008 are the only other Tigers to run for 1,000 yards since Faulk. Toefield came close in 2001 with 992 net yards rushing, and Joseph Addai and Domanick Davis flirted with 1,000, but never broke the barrier.

Charles Scott will undoubtedly be the feature back this season, and provided he stays healthy, I expect him to have another banner season. Les Miles has praised the offensive line and says this line may be the best he's had at LSU. If this in fact is the best line he's seen while he's been here, we could be in for a treat. As long as they stick together, pick one another up, and play with a relentless mentality, our running game could be one of the best, if not THE best, in the country.

Richard Dickson may be one of the best kept secrets in all of college football. He is one of the most sure-handed tight ends in the game today, and he's a playmaker. He has the ability to make the big catches, he can make catches in traffic, and he's athletic enough to be more than just a threat underneath the coverage--meaning he can run a vertical or a post over the deep middle of the field. He's going to play a vital role in the passing game this season, and he'll be called upon often. He and LaFell may need to carry the bulk of the load for the first few games, but hopefully we'll find reliable third and fourth targets to compliment our passing game.

Lastly, Jordan Jefferson. Having Jefferson on this list as a sophomore has me a little perplexed. I don't expect him to win the Davey O'Brien Award by any means; mainly because we're very balanced and tend to the favor the run a little more than the pass. The biggest reason(s) I see this (having Jefferson on the list) as baffling is because Jefferson only started two games last season, and his numbers were not necessarily the greatest. He was efficient in the bowl game, sure; but he's not going to put up Sam Bradford's or Colt McCoy's numbers. Could it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Doubtful. Like I said, we favor the run too much for Jefferson to throw for 3,000 yards in a single season. It's nice the O'Brien Award organization has acknowledged Jefferson, and they consider him to be one of the top quarterbacks in the country, but anyone putting him atop the list or even in the top five, in my opinion, is a little beyond themselves.

It's going to be tough for Charles Scott to win the Doak Walker Award when he has to compete with the likes of Jonathan Dwyer, Jahvid Best, and Jacquizz Rodgers, but it's possible he could bring home the gold; or at least he could receive an invite to the award ceremony. The Mackey Award is a very winnable award for Dickson. I think, of the three Tigers named to watch lists for their respective position's award, Dickson has the best chance of winning. He's proven himself to be a valuable asset to this team since 2007, and I have always admired the way he plays the game. He's not afraid to throw a block, he can make big plays, and he's a complete football player. I wish all three the best of luck, but individual accolades mean very little to me. I'd much rather see another championship banner.